Is China eyeing a friendly pope in the Vatican?

When I encountered the article in The Spectator titled "Is China eyeing a friendly pope in the Vatican?" I found myself pausing to ponder its gravity. It’s not merely a matter of geopolitics or ecclesiastical speculation—it’s a window into an age-old contest where faith grapples with power, often emerging scarred but resolute. The piece, with its keen focus on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ambitions, suggests Beijing might be angling for a pontiff more pliable to its will, especially as the secretive 2018 Sino-Vatican deal nears renewal. As a Catholic who holds dear the Church’s heritage, and as one who has witnessed worldly powers attempt to reshape eternal truths, this stirs both unease and a sense of déjà vu. Yet, what strikes me most is how this moment contrasts with the legacy of Pope John Paul II—and how the faithful in China bear the cost.

The article lays bare a harsh truth: China, under Xi Jinping’s unrelenting rule, brooks no rival to its authority. The CCP’s treatment of religion—whether the underground Catholic Church or the Uyghur Muslims—reveals a regime that sees faith as a foe to its total control. The 2018 agreement, granting the Vatican a voice in bishop appointments while ceding ground to Beijing’s state-run church, was framed as a diplomatic olive branch. Yet, as The Spectator notes, it has left many Chinese Catholics caught between fidelity to Rome and the Party’s coercion. With Pope Francis aging and the deal’s fate uncertain, the question looms: will the next conclave produce a pope willing to deepen this tenuous pact? Here, the shadow of John Paul II looms large. Where Francis opts for dialogue, John Paul stood as a bulwark against communism, his voice a clarion call for religious freedom that helped topple Soviet tyranny. He dreamed of visiting China, a hope dashed by a regime that feared his moral force. Today’s Vatican, by contrast, seems to whisper where it once roared.

Consider the human toll, which weighs heavy on my heart. The underground priests and laity who defy the state church endure not just harassment but outright torment. Take Bishop Augustine Cui Tai of Xuanhua, detained secretly since 2021 after decades of persecution—his flock calls him a “sacrificial lamb.” Or Bishop Julius Jia Zhiguo of Zhengding, 90 years old, under house arrest since 2020, his orphanage for disabled children dismantled by the regime as an “unauthorized religious activity.” Bishop Vincent Guo Xijin of Mindong, stripped of his see by Vatican concession in 2018, was forced to sleep on the streets in winter, his whereabouts now unknown. These are not mere statistics but living martyrs, echoing the early Christians under Rome’s heel. Their courage, as C.S. Lewis might say, points to “better things ahead than any we leave behind.” Yet, their plight worsened after the 2018 deal, with reports of intensified arrests, surveillance, and forced registration with the schismatic Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association—a body that demands loyalty to the Party over the Pope.

History offers a lens here. John Paul II faced down communism not with compromise but with conviction. His support for Poland’s Solidarity movement showed that resistance, not accommodation, could preserve the Church’s vitality. In China, he sought dialogue but never at the expense of the underground faithful, whom he praised as a beacon of fidelity. The current policy, however, seems to trade their witness for a seat at Beijing’s table. The article suggests China might favor a figure like Cardinal Tagle—charismatic, Asian, perhaps more amenable to negotiation. It’s a plausible notion, though the Holy Spirit often defies earthly schemes, as Abraham Lincoln might remind us: “The Almighty has His own purposes.” Still, the idea of Beijing eyeing the papacy with such intent chills me—not for its novelty, but for its echo of empires past, from Henry VIII to the Soviets, each bending faith to their yoke.

I write not to condemn but to invite reflection. The Church has navigated treacherous waters before—think of Pius XII in the Nazi storm—but it thrives when it stands firm, not when it yields too much. John Paul II knew this; his feast day, October 22, was marked by the 2018 deal’s renewal, a bitter irony given his legacy. If China seeks a compliant pope, it’s because it dreads one who isn’t. The faithful in China—bishops like James Su Zhimin, missing for 27 years, or Thaddeus Ma Daqin, under house arrest since 2012—deserve a Vatican that echoes John Paul’s resolve, not one that muffles their cries. Let’s pray the next successor to Peter recalls that the Church’s mission isn’t to appease powers but to transcend them, offering hope to those who suffer in silence.

by Alfonso Beccar Varela and Grok.